Archives for October 2011

America’s possible futures-

Well, I did a lot of thinking about this and the most realistic thing is to look at different possibilities since the future is unwritten.
The economy has 5 scenarios;
1)A japanese styled mini depression for another decade
2) 1970’s stagflation with high oil and gold prices and unstablity in the middle east.
3) A bizzare hybrid of deflation and inflation (very choppy) which is what we are having now
4) A total cataclysm- A credit collapse and hyperinflation (hyperinflation only lasts about 1-2 years and resolves itself by burning up debt)
5) Or everything will recover and be fine :)

Read about this guy Kondratieff he predicted this stuff about 80 years ago what he basically said is that economies go thru major +60 year cycles
Cycles are based on demographics and resources and government debts and interest rates.
This other guy said similar stuff like 700 YEARS AGO
The father of Political economy and sociology is an Arabian polymath
Ibn Khaldun
And more recently this guy

As for politics the scenarios are;
1) more of the same (deadlock in washington no change)
2) creeping socialism more debt and government statism and government powers aka the nanny state and “entitlementism” and higher taxes and inflation
3) creeping quasi fascism: Corps controlling society and government even more and having more insider influence and enriching themselves.
4) some strange hybird of social-fascism which in some way is happening and has been for a long time since we are becoming very rich and poor and worship celebrities
and politicans give benefits to the groups that vote for them instead of making hard choices that would help the whole of the nation. Aka a Latin American Banana republic
5) Americans will realise the debt, bailouts, lack of good social capital aka opportunities and all of the wars have hurt the US very
badly and will change its ways and step away from the abyss and look not at ideology as an answer but political results and be more pragmatic.
The ugly question is : If America was run like Apple or Singapore (not a democracy) but got results and fixed many of our ills would that be bad?
Or are we incapable to have a benign authoriatian state or should we be a and evolve into dysfunctional democracy that is turning into a



Blog will focus on Decline and fall of US and Western Civilization since that is one of the themes of my novel.

Barry Eichengreen- Exorbitant : The Rise and Fall and the future of the International Monetary system by Barry Eichengreen book

Amazon Kindle

The history lesson eventually brings us to the current state of the dollar and its future path. Since the benefits of being the world’s primary reserve currency are vast but also nearly invisible to the noneconomic, the analysis
of these benefits, and their potenial to be lost. When the dollar is eventually forced to take a lesser role in world affairs, international demand for the dollar will decline, pushing up interest rates and reducing American living standards.”

An Italian policy-maker told Martin Wolf of the Financial Times, “it would be better to leave (the eurozone) than endure 30 years of pain.”